Saad Ullah
Natural gas has been one of the more unpredictable commodities this year, swinging sharply on supply data, weather forecasts, and shifting trader sentiment. After a volatile stretch that included a spike in early February and a pullback toward the $2.70s, the market is now sitting at a familiar crossroads around $3.05 — a level that's quickly become the focus for short-term traders.
$3.05 Is the Line Traders Are Watching Right Now
Natural Gas kicked off the session with a sharp overnight move of nearly 3%, only to give most of it back. Price is now hovering around $3.05, stuck in a tight consolidation band between $3.00 and $3.10 as early momentum fades. The setup is straightforward: hold the day above $3.05 and the short-term picture stays bullish. Slip back under $3.00, and it flips bearish.
The RSI sitting in the low-40s tells you momentum isn't stretched either way — the market is simply consolidating. That's consistent with what we covered in Natural gas tests $3 support after 8% drop, where the $3 level was already shaping up as the critical line between a recovery and a breakdown.
Downside Target Near $2.73 Still in Play If $3 Gives Way
NatGas recently bounced off lows near $2.71, but some traders are still eyeing a potential revisit of that zone. The support cluster in the low-$2.70s hasn't been properly tested yet, and a break back below $3.00 could put it back on the table. That kind of sub-$3 weakness would fit the broader trend covered in U.S. natural gas drops below $3 for first time in 4 months as supply stays comfortable, which explains how extended trade below $3 can shift overall market tone when supply expectations take over.
Right now, the $3.05 pivot is doing its job as a decision point. Whether it holds or breaks will likely set the tone for short-term volatility — and as outlined in Why natural gas trading carries 50-120% volatility risk, NatGas can move fast once key levels give way. That's what makes the current pause worth paying attention to.
Saad Ullah
