Peter Smith
⬤ The U.S. Dollar Index is stuck below the 100 mark, hovering around 98.9 as it grinds between two major long-term technical levels. The index rallied hard into Donald Trump's presidency - pushing toward the 109-110 zone - but has been trending lower ever since inauguration day, with price now compressing in a tightening range.
⬤ Right now, DXY sits between the Daily 200 EMA at 99.03 and the Daily 200 MA at 98.33. These levels are acting as a technical sandwich - the index keeps bouncing within them, failing to reclaim 100 resistance while also holding above the longer-term moving average. DXY US Dollar Index: 10-Year Rally Pattern Returns Again notes that similar consolidation phases have historically preceded renewed dollar strength.
The dollar rallied strongly leading into Trump's presidency but has largely trended downward since his inauguration.
⬤ The 98-100 corridor has become a defining zone for the dollar in 2026. DXY Drops to 15-Year Support Level: What's Next for the Dollar in 2026 points out that long-term support and resistance are converging here, making the current price action particularly significant for global currency markets.
⬤ With the range getting tighter by the session, a directional resolution looks increasingly likely. DXY Dollar Index Eyes Drop to 95.04 as Bearish Structure Deepens lays out the downside case if 98.33 fails to hold. Since the dollar underpins global liquidity and commodity pricing, any clean break from this consolidation zone could ripple across equities, crypto, and risk assets in the weeks ahead.
Peter Smith
