Peter Smith
According to analyst Rashad Hajiyev, Gold is holding just beneath the $5,000 mark after failing to claw back a key ascending trendline. The $5,040 zone - once a reliable floor - has flipped into resistance, and until bulls reclaim it, the broader structure remains under pressure.
$5,040 Trendline Acts as Ceiling After Classic Breakdown
The technical picture fits a textbook breakdown-and-retest pattern. Price broke through ascending support, bounced modestly from recent lows, and has since made several runs at the $5,040 area - all rejected.
Each failed attempt reinforces the level's new role as resistance. As covered in Gold Tests $5,043 Resistance With Q1 All-Time High Scenario in Focus, this zone was already flagged as a pivotal ceiling heading into Q1.
Gold has not yet managed to recover this level, keeping the current structure under pressure despite a modest rebound from recent lows.
The pattern mirrors what played out during the Gold Drops Below $5,000 as Bearish Momentum Builds episode, where repeated failure at key levels extended consolidation and kept sellers in control.
A Trendline Reclaim Could Unlock a Fresh Bullish Leg
That said, the chart also maps out a conditional bullish scenario. If XAU/USD closes back above the broken trendline, the projected path points toward a meaningful acceleration higher - a momentum shift that would flip the current narrative. Similar dynamics were outlined in Gold at Pivotal H4 Trend Line: $4,600 and $5,600 in Focus, where reclaiming structural support opened the door to significantly higher targets.
Gold sits at a genuine fork in the road. A confirmed break above $5,040 would likely draw in buyers and reset short-term momentum to the upside. Continued rejection, on the other hand, keeps the door open for further consolidation - or another leg lower. Either way, how price behaves around this trendline in the sessions ahead will set the tone for precious metals broadly.
Peter Smith
