Usman Salis
SOFI Technologies is closing in on a key technical level that could define its next major move. Analyst Venu points out that the $13 zone aligns directly with the IPO VWAP - a long-term reference point widely used to gauge fair value and institutional positioning. With both short-term and long-term trends still pointing lower, this level has become the focal point for any potential shift in structure.
The SOFI Breakdown That Shifted Market Structure
The chart tells a clear story: a strong bullish phase has given way to a sustained downtrend. After peaking near the $28-$32 range, SOFI failed to hold higher levels and began printing lower highs followed by consistent downside continuation.
Price is now trading below both the 21 EMA and 50 EMA, which have rolled over and are trending downward. This confirms that momentum has shifted firmly in favor of sellers. Each attempt to stabilize has been met with renewed pressure, reinforcing the bearish structure. As Venu notes:
The $13 zone aligns with the IPO VWAP - making it a critical area where demand may step in.
This type of setup reflects a market still in correction rather than recovery - similar to patterns covered in SOFI Stock Stalls in No Man's Land, where price remains caught between trend continuation and a potential bottoming phase.
Why $13 Is the Defining SOFI Level Right Now
The $13 level stands out for one key reason: its alignment with the IPO VWAP. From a structural perspective, this area represents the first major test of deeper support following the breakdown from the mid-$20s. Prior support zones that failed to hold have now flipped into resistance.
Price approaching the $13 VWAP area after failing to hold above prior support zones - those levels have now turned into resistance.
Similar dynamics played out in previous SOFI setups, where a single price zone defined near-term direction across the entire structure - a dynamic explored in depth in SOFI Stock Reprices as Dark Pool Volume Collapses to $15.
2 SOFI Scenarios Traders Are Watching
At this stage, the market is waiting for confirmation of demand. Buy volume stepping in at the $13 level would be the key signal validating any reversal attempt. Two scenarios are currently in focus:
- A V-shaped reversal if strong buying pressure emerges quickly
- A base formation around the VWAP level before any sustained move higher
Until buyers show up with real volume at this level, the trend stays bearish and the inability to reclaim the EMAs keeps signaling weakness.
Until either scenario develops, the trend remains bearish, and the failure to reclaim the 21 EMA and 50 EMA continues to signal underlying weakness. This mirrors patterns analyzed in SOFI Cup & Handle Structure Analysis, where pullbacks into key zones either preceded continuation or marked the beginning of longer-term accumulation phases.
The next move will depend entirely on whether buyers defend the $13 zone - not just holding it, but showing clear evidence of accumulation through volume.
Usman Salis
