Peter Smith
⬤ Wall Street economists broadly expect U.S. inflation to stay stable in February, hovering near five-year lows. Compiled projections from major banks put the median headline CPI forecast at 0.27% month over month and 2.4% year over year - suggesting that overall price pressures are not building in any significant way.
⬤ The estimates were drawn from 11 major financial institutions including Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, and UBS, among others. For core CPI, which strips out food and energy, economists see a 0.23% monthly rise and a 2.5% annual rate - a modest cooling from January's 0.30% monthly core reading.
⬤ Compared with January's CPI report - headline up 0.17% MoM and 2.4% YoY, core up 0.30% MoM - the February forecasts imply a mild uptick in headline monthly inflation but a softer core reading. In short: overall inflation edges slightly higher, while underlying price pressures hold steady.
⬤ Some analysts caution that CPI releases later in 2025 may be distorted by statistical base effects. Beyond that technical noise, the February data will offer a key read on monetary policy expectations. Context from earlier inflation tracking shows how different measurement approaches can meaningfully shift market expectations - and the same dynamic is likely to play out as new data rolls in.
Peter Smith
