Peter Smith
⬤ Ian Cooper reports that WTI crude oil (CL) slid roughly 2.3% in early trading but continued to hold above the critical $85 support level. The shared chart shows a sharp rally from the mid-$50s and mid-$60s into the $95 to $100 resistance zone, with price action hovering around $96.7.
⬤ The chart also captured a dramatic intraday spike, with the marked high reaching $119.48 before a sharp pullback. Despite that retreat, the broader structure remains elevated above earlier breakout levels. The analyst flagged $100 as a major psychological barrier and highlighted a triple negative divergence on the RSI, a sign that upside momentum could be fading even as prices stay near recent highs.
⬤ The plan outlined involves adding to the short roughly every $10 if price continues to extend, reflecting a cautious bearish stance rather than a full conviction reversal. The trade setup accounts for the possibility that crude retests higher levels before any sustained downside develops.
⬤ The broader trade thesis centers on a weakening macro backdrop, with recent oil strength seen as driven largely by geopolitical escalation. If de-escalation signals begin to emerge, that embedded risk premium could deflate quickly. With WTI still above support but stalling around the $95 to $100 zone linked to rising recession risk, this area may determine whether crude stages another leg higher or begins a more sustained correction.
Peter Smith
