Usman Salis
⬤ WTI crude is gaining strong momentum as global oil inventories keep declining. Data tracking oil stored in tanks and tankers shows stock levels hovering around the 6.2 billion barrel range, with recent trends pointing to renewed drawdowns. Global crude and product inventories fell at roughly 7 million barrels per day last week, driven largely by rapid reductions in cargoes held at sea.
⬤ The inventory picture shows seasonal fluctuations throughout the year, with stocks peaking near midyear before trending lower again. The current tightening comes as WTI crude oil surges above $84 for the first time since July 2025, with prices reportedly up around 50% over the past month. Rapid supply contractions and stronger demand expectations have accelerated price momentum across crude benchmarks.
⬤ A notable driver behind recent inventory declines is the sharp drop in oil stored offshore. Floating storage typically acts as a buffer during oversupply, but falling volumes suggest stronger consumption or constrained supply flows. As WTI oil breaks $84 as resistance zones at $87 and $95 come into focus, analysts are noting rising volatility driven by shrinking buffers.
⬤ Falling inventories and rising WTI prices reflect a tightening global oil balance that could shake broader commodity markets. Sustained drawdowns typically amplify price volatility - and with Goldman Sachs warning Brent could reach $100 within five weeks, the potential scale of market repricing is becoming harder to dismiss.
Usman Salis
