Saad Ullah
⬤ Gold is holding firm near $5,179, pressing against the upper boundary of a rising price channel that has been in place since October 2025. The chart setup is clean: steady uptrend, price compressing near resistance, and growing anticipation of a move higher. The expected sequence is a channel breakout, a revisit of the prior record high zone, and then an extension toward $7,000-$8,000 before summer 2026.
⬤ The channel has acted as a reliable roadmap through late 2025 and into 2026. After a sharp pullback earlier this year, gold recovered and resumed its controlled climb within the structure. Now price is clustering right at the channel ceiling - the market is essentially testing whether it has enough momentum to break through. That broader constructive tone is well-documented: XAU/USD Holds Inside Ascending Channel Amid $2,050 Pullback and Gold Holds Above $4,500 Support After Strong Rally to $5,000 both highlight how gold has remained technically sound while key support levels held.
The expectation is for XAU/USD to break out of the channel, revisit the prior record high zone, and then extend higher toward a $7,000 to $8,000 target before summer 2026.
⬤ The projected path is about sequence, not certainty: breakout first, retest second, acceleration phase third. Right now, the key question is whether XAU can hold above the channel ceiling once it clears it. That same breakout theme runs through Gold Price Analysis: $5,100 Ascending Triangle Signals Breakout, which tracks similar price behavior around the $5,100 level.
⬤ For markets, this is a technically significant moment. A clean break above the channel opens the door to higher price discovery through mid-2026 and keeps the $7,000-$8,000 scenario in play. Failure to clear resistance, on the other hand, would likely keep gold rangebound inside the structure and push that target further out.
Saad Ullah
