Eseandre Mordi
⬤ The Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow model is projecting 4.2% annualized real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2025 as of February 2, according to official model data cited by Satoshi Flipper. The reading stayed flat from the January 29 estimate even after incorporating new economic releases.
⬤ GDPNow runs on incoming data from sources like the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Institute for Supply Management, using methods similar to how the US Bureau of Economic Analysis calculates official GDP. The latest update tweaked the forecast for nonresidential equipment investment slightly down from 3.7% to 3.6%. Similar tracking appeared in Atlanta Fed growth tracker updates.
As Satoshi Flipper noted, The model provides a near real-time estimate ahead of official GDP publication and is not an official forecast of the Federal Reserve.
⬤ The stable 4.2% reading adds to the picture painted by recent strong GDP reports. Previous US GDP growth forecasts and economic expansion data showed similar momentum in the American economy. Markets watch these real-time estimates closely as a preview before official GDP numbers drop, using them to gauge whether the economy is running hot or cooling off.
Eseandre Mordi
