Peter Smith
XRP just bounced off $2.77 and is clinging to a rising trendline, but something's not right. The rally to $2.93 looks like a correction, not the start of something bigger. Bearish divergences are piling up, and the $3 ceiling remains intact.
Key Levels to Watch
According to CasiTrades, this move fits an ABC corrective pattern rather than the five-wave impulse bulls were hoping for. Price hit Fibonacci targets around $2.90 before getting rejected, and now traders are eyeing potential retests of $2.79 or even $2.58 before any serious breakout attempt.
- Resistance zone: $2.90–$2.93 is the immediate barrier, with $3.00 being the make-or-break level everyone's watching
- First support: $2.79 has already been tested once and held
- Critical support: $2.58 is the line in the sand - lose this and the bullish structure breaks down
- Invalidation point: A clean break below $2.58 would kill the macro bullish setup entirely
The Divergence Problem
The RSI on the 1-hour chart is testing the bottom of its rising wedge, and divergence is showing up through the 4-hour timeframe. Price made higher highs while RSI made lower highs - that's classic momentum loss. If RSI breaks down from here, expect XRP to retest $2.79 or $2.58 before any sustained move higher.
The bigger issue is what's missing: a proper five-wave impulsive structure. Without that, bulls don't have confirmation that a true Wave 3 breakout has started. The $2.90-$3.00 zone keeps capping rallies, and XRP remains tied to Bitcoin's movements. If BTC weakens further, XRP likely follows.
The bullish case isn't dead as long as $2.58 holds, but more downside testing looks probable first. If XRP can defend $2.79-$2.58 and then smash through $3.00 with volume, the door opens to $3.25 and beyond. But if $2.58 breaks, the whole bullish count gets invalidated and the macro uptrend comes into question.
Until XRP actually breaks and holds above $3, this remains a corrective grind. Traders should watch for bullish divergence on the next dip as a signal that the long-awaited Wave 3 breakout might finally be ready to launch. For now, patience beats forcing trades into resistance.
Peter Smith
