Peter Smith
Dogecoin's chart is telling a familiar story—extended consolidation, a bounce off support, and early signs of momentum building. With price holding above the 25-month moving average and rebounding from the lower edge of its long-term ascending channel, the technical setup looks quietly bullish.
The Channel Pattern
Crypto trader EtherNasyonaL believes DOGE may be entering its third major bull wave, following the explosive runs of 2017 and 2021. The monthly chart shows three distinct growth phases: the 2017 breakout that saw DOGE rally over 100x, the 2021 surge to an all-time high above $0.70, and the current structure that mirrors both previous setups. Right now, DOGE is consolidating around $0.19, positioned within the lower green zone of the channel after reclaiming the 25-month moving average.
This parallel channel has acted as a roadmap for Dogecoin's macro trend. Each time DOGE touched the lower band while holding above the 25MA, it launched into a steep rally toward the channel's upper boundary—and that's exactly where it sits today.
Why This Could Be Different (Or Not)
Several factors might support an upward move. Bitcoin dominance appears to be plateauing, which historically precedes money flowing into altcoins. Retail interest is creeping back, especially in memecoins that tend to lead during early bull phases. Expected rate cuts in 2025 could also boost appetite for riskier assets like DOGE. Long-term holders are still accumulating, and Dogecoin's unique cultural presence keeps social activity steady even during quiet periods.
The 25-month moving average has been remarkably reliable as a launch pad for DOGE rallies. In 2017, crossing above it kicked off a massive breakout. In 2021, the same pattern marked the beginning of Dogecoin's climb from pennies to over $0.70. Now DOGE is trading just above the 25MA again, suggesting the market may be repeating its cyclical behavior—quiet accumulation before acceleration.
If history rhymes, DOGE could be in the early stages of another major move. But timing remains uncertain, and the crypto market has a habit of surprising everyone. The technical setup looks promising, but confirmation will come from sustained price action above current levels and increasing volume. For now, Dogecoin is coiled and waiting—whether it springs up or consolidates further depends on broader market conditions and whether bulls can maintain control above key support zones.
Peter Smith
