Usman Salis
Bitcoin's latest rebound is drawing increasing skepticism, with price action failing to break the broader bearish structure that has defined recent months. As Kamran Asghar noted, it may still be too early to call a bottom, even as some market participants begin to anticipate a reversal. The chart reinforces that caution, showing a market that has stabilized but not yet shifted direction.
The Crossover That Marked the BTC Bear Phase
The chart highlights a critical moving average crossover where the shorter-term average fell below the longer-term one, marking what is labeled as the "bear start." This transition is not just a signal - it's the beginning of a structural shift. What followed was a steady expansion between the two moving averages, confirming bearish momentum and reinforcing downside control.
This "bear confirm" phase coincided with a clear deterioration in price action. Bitcoin began printing lower highs and lower lows, forming a descending structure that remains intact today. Similar structural breakdowns have been observed in recent market analysis, where Bitcoin breaks structure with support turning into resistance, reinforcing the idea that once key levels are lost, recovery becomes significantly harder.
The chart shows a market that has stabilized but not yet shifted direction - bear structure is still the dominant force here.
A Bitcoin Bounce Within a Downtrend
While BTC has recently rebounded, the move lacks the characteristics of a true trend reversal. Price remains below a descending resistance line, and the recovery has not invalidated the broader pattern of lower highs. In technical analysis terms, this type of bounce is often considered corrective rather than impulsive.
Recent behavior aligns with patterns where Bitcoin rebounds but faces rejection at key resistance zones, highlighting the fragile nature of current upside attempts. The inability to reclaim higher levels suggests that sellers are still active on strength, preventing momentum from shifting.
- Lower highs remain intact
- Resistance continues to cap upside
- No bullish crossover has formed
These factors collectively point to a market that is stabilizing but not yet reversing.
Lower highs are still printing, resistance is still holding - until that changes, this is a bounce, not a bottom.
Why BTC Still Lacks a Confirmed Bottom
The key issue is structural, not directional noise. Bitcoin has not yet broken above its descending trendline, nor has it reclaimed key moving averages in a way that would signal a shift in momentum. Until those conditions are met, the broader downtrend remains the dominant force.
Additional analysis shows that Bitcoin continues to test lower support zones after failed recoveries, reinforcing the idea that current price action fits within a corrective phase rather than a confirmed bottom.
Bitcoin is not collapsing, but it is also not recovering in any meaningful way. Instead, it remains in a transitional state where bearish structure persists beneath short-term stability. The longer this structure holds, the harder it becomes to argue that a durable bottom has already formed.
Usman Salis
