Usman Salis
Silver is entering a critical phase as price action continues to respect a developing rounding bottom structure. Shane Migura noted that the recent drop reinforces this formation, with the next move toward resistance likely to determine whether the pattern confirms or extends further into April.
The Structure Taking Shape on the Chart
The chart clearly outlines a rounding bottom, with price carving out a smooth, curved recovery after a sharp selloff. Following the decline from earlier highs, silver stabilized and began forming higher lows, gradually building a base.
This type of formation reflects a transition from selling pressure to accumulation. Instead of a sharp reversal, the market forms a rounded structure as momentum shifts beneath the surface. Price has now recovered from the lows near the mid-$60s and is steadily advancing toward the upper boundary of the pattern.
The recent drop reinforces the rounding bottom formation, with the next move toward resistance likely to determine whether the pattern confirms or extends further into April.
Why the $95 Neckline Is the Defining Silver Level
A horizontal resistance level - labeled as the neckline - sits near the $95 zone and has already acted as a rejection point. The current setup shows price approaching this same level again, setting up a critical retest. The rounding bottom remains valid, but it is not confirmed until price breaks above this neckline.
This aligns with broader silver technical setups where repeated tests of resistance precede breakout attempts, as seen in Silver Eyes $100-$103 Target as 25% Breakout Pattern Takes Shape, where consolidation below resistance led to projected upside continuation.
A Pullback That Fits the Pattern
The recent drop does not contradict the structure - it supports it. Price rejected near resistance and rotated lower, returning toward the curved support of the rounding formation. This behavior is typical, as rounding bottoms often require multiple attempts before a breakout occurs.
Similar dynamics have been observed in Silver Breaks Key Downtrend - Now Targeting $86 and $92 Resistance Levels, where price stabilized after a selloff and began rebuilding structure beneath resistance. At the same time, the pattern continues to show higher lows, indicating that buyers are still stepping in on dips rather than allowing a full breakdown.
Rounding bottoms often require multiple attempts before a breakout occurs - each rejection followed by a rotation lower is part of the process, not a failure of it.
The Silver Scenario That Defines April
The next test of the neckline is the key trigger. A breakout above resistance would confirm the rounding bottom and signal a transition from consolidation to expansion. Failure to break, however, would likely lead to a continuation of the same behavior - rejection at resistance followed by another rotation lower.
This type of repeated structure, where price tests a ceiling multiple times before resolving, has also been highlighted in Silver Breaks Higher With a 7.7% Rally Above Key Resistance, where a rounded base ultimately led to a shift into upward momentum.
Silver remains in a transition phase - not yet in breakout, but no longer in decline - with the neckline the only level that truly matters right now.
Silver now sits at a defining crossroads - the next move at the $95 resistance level will likely determine whether the rounding bottom completes into a confirmed breakout or extends further into consolidation through April.
Usman Salis
