Victoria Bazir
SoftBank has reportedly cut the target size of a margin loan tied to its OpenAI stake from $10 billion to roughly $6 billion, according to Bloomberg - a sharp 40% reduction that may reveal growing stress beneath the AI financing boom.
The planned structure was designed as a two-year margin loan backed by SoftBank’s OpenAI holdings, with an option to extend for another year. Discussions with banks, hedge funds, and private credit firms have reportedly been ongoing since March.
But lenders are becoming more cautious.
According to Bloomberg, several potential creditors raised concerns about using shares in a privately held company like OpenAI as collateral, particularly given the lack of transparent market pricing. The reduction in the loan target suggests demand for large-scale AI leverage may already be weakening despite continued public enthusiasm around artificial intelligence.
The timing is especially notable because SoftBank has aggressively expanded its exposure to OpenAI this year. In March, the company secured a separate $40 billion bridge loan to support OpenAI-related investments and broader corporate financing needs.
At the same time, broader cracks are beginning to emerge across the AI trade.
Bloomberg notes that investors are increasingly questioning whether the hundreds of billions of dollars being poured into AI infrastructure will generate meaningful returns within a realistic timeframe. OpenAI has reportedly missed some internal sales and user-growth expectations in 2026, while competitors such as Anthropic continue gaining traction in enterprise and coding-focused markets.
Even credit markets appear to be reacting. Despite SoftBank shares rising 39% this year, the cost of insuring the company’s debt has climbed significantly, with CDS spreads widening by roughly 61 basis points in 2026 - often viewed as a warning sign of rising perceived credit risk.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar pushed back against concerns, reportedly describing demand for the company’s products as a “vertical wall of demand.” Yet the financing adjustment itself may tell a different story.
Contrarian takeaway: equity markets still treat AI as an unstoppable narrative, but credit markets are starting to price in risk. Historically, leverage appetite weakens before broader sentiment shifts — and SoftBank’s downsized OpenAI loan may become one of the first real signs that the AI capital cycle is entering a more fragile phase.
Victoria Bazir
