Artem Voloskovets
Nvidia appears poised for further downside movement as technical analysts identify a developing corrective pattern that could push shares toward the $161 level. The semiconductor giant, which has been at the center of the AI boom, completed a bullish cycle from its November 2025 low but now shows signs of exhaustion as Elliott Wave structures suggest the current rebound may be temporary rather than the start of a new uptrend.
Elliott Wave Pattern Points to $161 Downside Target
The stock is currently navigating a corrective phase after peaking in October 2025, with Elliott Wave analysis revealing a completed five-wave decline labeled as wave (A). Nvidia recently started what appears to be a corrective bounce, but technical projections from Elliott Wave forecasters indicate this rebound represents wave (B) in a larger corrective structure. This bounce could unfold in either three or seven swings before momentum fades and the stock resumes its downward trajectory.
A critical resistance level sits near $203.49, which serves as the invalidation point for the bearish scenario. As long as Nvidia remains below this threshold, the corrective outlook stays intact. The technical framework suggests that once the current bounce exhausts itself, the next leg down could carry shares toward $161.09, representing a significant decline from current levels.
Key Resistance Levels Challenge NVDA Recovery Attempts
Nvidia's struggle around major technical barriers has been well-documented, with the stock repeatedly failing to break above resistance near $197. This behavior aligns with broader price compression patterns between $175 and $197 that often precede significant volatility. The company's impressive fundamentals, including $215 billion in revenue, haven't been enough to push shares past these technical obstacles, suggesting that near-term price action may be dictated more by chart patterns than business performance.
Elliott Wave structures provide traders with a roadmap for potential market movements during corrective phases, helping identify when rallies might fail and where support levels could emerge. For Nvidia, which remains central to AI and semiconductor sector performance, how the stock responds around these projected levels could determine whether this correction deepens or transitions into a new bullish cycle. Investors watching NVDA should monitor price behavior near the $203.49 invalidation level and prepare for potential moves toward $161 if the corrective pattern continues to develop as anticipated.
Artem Voloskovets
