Saad Ullah
⬤ The Truflation US CPI Inflation Index currently shows inflation at just 1.56% year over year—more than a full percentage point below the Bureau of Labor Statistics' latest official reading of 2.7%. While the BLS updates monthly using survey data from previous weeks, Truflation refreshes daily by pulling live pricing across thousands of products and services. The gap between these numbers tells an interesting story about where inflation actually stands right now versus where it was a few weeks ago.
⬤ This isn't just a minor technical difference. The methodologies couldn't be more opposite. Traditional CPI collects prices through surveys, processes them over several weeks, and releases the results on a set schedule—meaning you're always looking at old information. Truflation takes a different approach, scraping real-time data from online retailers, service providers, and commodity markets to build a picture of what's happening with prices today. The chart shows Truflation steadily declining throughout the past year and now hovering near its lowest point, comfortably under the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target.
⬤ History shows Truflation tends to move ahead of official readings. During previous inflation spikes, the real-time index flagged rising pressure before it showed up in CPI reports. Now the pattern's flipped—Truflation is dropping faster than the government data, sitting around 1.5% while CPI remains stuck above 2.5%. That's not a small gap when you're trying to figure out where the economy's actually headed.
⬤ The divergence matters because the Fed still relies heavily on backward-looking CPI data when making rate decisions, even though markets are already pricing in what's happening right now. If Truflation stays around current levels, we should expect official CPI to keep trending down over the next few months as it catches up to reality. The takeaway is simple: how you measure inflation shapes everything from policy decisions to market expectations, and right now those two views aren't even close to aligned.
Saad Ullah
