Alex Dudov
XRP is struggling to find its footing after a sharp drop from the March 17 high near $1.60 to around $1.30. A chart shared by TheCryptoBasic maps out a developing 5-wave Elliott structure, suggesting the asset may still be in the early stages of a broader decline with a projected cycle low near $0.86.
Fibonacci Resistance at $1.53 Keeps XRP Capped
Every attempt to push above $1.53 has stalled. That level aligns with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement, and repeated rejections there confirm that buyers are not in control.
Price action reflects a consistent inability to hold higher levels, with XRP printing lower highs after each failed attempt at the resistance zone.
The pattern of lower highs is clear on the chart, and the structure remains tilted to the downside as long as $1.53 holds as resistance. XRP bulls have already struggled near $1.50, with that zone historically acting as a ceiling during recovery attempts across multiple setups.
XRP Elliott Wave Map: Wave 3 Targets $1.07, Final Low Near $0.86
The correction from the March 17 high is being tracked as a classic 5-wave Elliott decline. Based on the current chart structure, XRP is now moving through Wave 3 - typically the most aggressive and extended leg of any impulse sequence.
The projected wave sequence breaks down as follows:
- Wave 3 decline toward approximately $1.07
- Wave 4 rebound into the $1.22 - $1.31 range
- Wave 5 final drop toward $0.8621 as a potential cycle bottom
The structure suggests that even a bounce from Wave 3 lows may be short-lived, with Wave 4 likely capped well below the $1.53 resistance before another leg lower develops.
This kind of structured, step-down behavior fits the broader pattern. XRP's bearish channel has already flagged a potential 40% drop from current levels, with price continuing to respect descending formations across multiple timeframes.
$1.30 Is the Line XRP Cannot Afford to Lose
With XRP hovering around $1.32, price is sitting just above a critical support area. A clean breakdown below this zone would open the door toward the Wave 3 target near $1.07 with little technical support in between.
As long as XRP stays below $1.53 and follows the projected wave sequence, there is no structural reason to expect a reversal in the near term.
There are no confirmed reversal signals within the current structure. The wave count remains intact, momentum stays to the downside, and resistance overhead is clearly defined. The $0.85 - $0.90 demand zone is where analysts expect corrective phases to complete before any meaningful recovery can take hold.
What Traders Are Watching Next
The immediate question is whether XRP completes Wave 3 near $1.07 or finds a temporary floor earlier. Either way, the structure points toward at least one more leg lower before a cycle bottom can form.
Until price reclaims $1.53 and invalidates the wave count, XRP remains in a defined bearish sequence with the projected low sitting below the $1 mark.
Alex Dudov
