Usman Salis
Dogecoin (DOGE) is squeezed into this falling wedge that's about to break, and everyone's watching to see if it can finally push past $0.20. The charts look okay, but traders are getting cold feet based on what's happening in the derivatives market.
Look, DOGE has been stuck in this annoying falling wedge for weeks now, and it's driving everyone crazy. You know how it is with these meme coins - one day they're pumping to the moon, the next day they're bleeding out. Right now, with Bitcoin and Ethereum both looking pretty sketchy, Dogecoin's actually sitting in a spot where it could surprise people.
The big question is whether it can break through that $0.20 wall that's been stopping it cold every single time.
DOGE Charts Don't Look Too Bad, But There's a Catch
So here's what's going on with Dogecoin (DOGE) on the 4-hour chart - it's forming this classic falling wedge pattern that crypto traders absolutely love to see. These things usually mean price is getting ready to explode upward, and DOGE is literally sitting right at the top edge of this wedge right now. There's decent support holding at $0.1795, which isn't terrible.
But - and there's always a but with crypto - DOGE actually dropped 1% today, which is kind of annoying when you're hoping for a breakout. I mean, come on DOGE, get your act together!
The good news is that the RSI bounced back from oversold territory and is chilling at 44 right now. That's not screaming "buy" but it's not screaming "sell" either - it's just... there. The MACD is slowly creeping toward the zero line in a good way, which usually means something's brewing underneath all this sideways nonsense.
Here's where it gets weird though - the MACD is also giving off some sketchy vibes about potentially flipping bearish if DOGE keeps doing this sideways dance much longer. So yeah, it's complicated.
Where DOGE Goes Next - Can It Actually Break $0.20 This Time?
Alright, let's talk about what happens next with Dogecoin (DOGE). If this falling wedge actually works out like it's supposed to, DOGE should rocket straight toward that $0.20 level that's been haunting it forever. Seriously, this price has been like kryptonite to DOGE - every time it gets close, something happens and it gets smacked back down.
But let's say DOGE finally grows a pair and smashes through $0.20. The next target would be around $0.22, and that's where things get really interesting. You've got all these people who bought DOGE at higher prices just waiting to dump their bags, so that level could turn into a real bloodbath.
Now, if things go south and DOGE breaks below that $0.1795 support, well... that would suck. The falling wedge would be toast, and DOGE could easily slide down to $0.1641. Nobody wants to see that happen, but crypto doesn't always care what we want.
Smart Money is Backing Away From DOGE - Here's Why That Matters
Here's where things get really interesting, and not necessarily in a good way. While us retail folks are looking at charts and getting excited about wedge patterns, the big players are quietly backing away from Dogecoin (DOGE).
According to CoinGlass, open interest dropped 1.44% to $1.90 billion. That might not sound like much, but it basically means fewer people are willing to bet big on DOGE right now. When the smart money starts pulling back, that's usually not a great sign.
But wait, it gets worse. Liquidations hit $3 million in just 24 hours, and here's the kicker - $1.89 million of that was long positions getting absolutely destroyed. Think about that for a second. Almost all the people betting on DOGE going up got completely wiped out when the price moved against them.
The funding rate tells the same story. It dropped from 0.0075% to 0.0054% in just 8 hours. For anyone who doesn't trade futures, this basically means it's getting cheaper to bet on DOGE going up, which happens when nobody really wants to do it anymore.
The only thing that's not completely terrible is the long-to-short ratio, which is sitting pretty balanced at 1.0032 over the last day. So at least people aren't running for the exits completely - they're just being more careful.
What does all this mean? Well, you've got this setup where the charts look like they could pop, but all the professional money is getting nervous. Sometimes that's exactly when the biggest moves happen - when nobody expects them. The question is whether DOGE will surprise everyone or just keep disappointing like it has been.
Usman Salis
