Sergey Diakov
Silver is going nowhere fast. XAG/USD has been drifting under a descending trendline for three weeks now, and buyers have yet to force a clean break. The timing matters: today is a third-Friday options expiration session, which tends to produce choppy, unpredictable swings around key price levels ahead of the weekly close.
Silver Trapped in Tight Range Near $78.43 Resistance
The chart puts XAG/USD right around $78.43, pressed up against a clearly defined descending trendline that has capped every rally attempt so far. This aligns with recent silver consolidation below key moving averages, which frames the current zone as a ceiling rather than a launch pad. What stands out is that silver hasn't really pulled back either. After a sharp drop earlier in the period, the market has essentially flatlined into resistance rather than retreating, which tells you buyers are still showing up, just not with enough force to break through.
That compression is exactly what makes the current setup worth watching. Zooming in, there's also a smaller downward channel inside the larger structure. Price bounced off the lower boundary of that channel and is now rotating back up toward resistance again. That pattern of bouncing without breaking is the defining feature here.
Why the Weekly Close Could Shift Near-Term Sentiment
Options expiration has a way of pinning prices near key levels before triggering sharp moves once the session wraps up. A strong weekly close near or above the descending trendline could flip near-term positioning in silver's favor. Another rejection, on the other hand, keeps the grinding consolidation intact and likely pushes fresh buyers to the sidelines.
XAG/USD holding structure below a major breakout zone is relevant here because it shows how extended consolidations can drag on even after a big volatility event. And silver has had those. The intense daily volatility in XAG/USD following failed resistance breaks is a reminder of how fast things can unravel once positioning shifts. That backdrop makes the weekly close feel like a genuine decision point rather than just noise.
For now, the setup is simple. Break above the trendline and the tone changes. Another rejection, and the range continues. The close will tell the story.
Sergey Diakov
