Sergey Diakov
⬤ XAU has recovered from the lower boundary of a rising wedge formation, with price currently around 4,680 after testing the 4,600-4,700 support zone. As Rashad Hajiyev noted, gold has reclaimed the lower band of this five-month structure but has not yet challenged the upper boundary. The rebound signals short-term stabilization following recent downside pressure, though the overall setup remains unconfirmed.
⬤ The rising wedge has been building for several months, with both support and resistance trending upward in parallel. Price recently tested the lower trendline and responded with a bounce, pointing to continued buyer activity at that level. This mirrors the dynamic covered in Gold Holds Above $4,000 as Price Retests Key Trendline After Major Rally, where trendline support served as a key stabilization area after a broader pullback.
Gold has reclaimed the lower band of this five-month structure but has yet to regain the upper boundary.
⬤ Despite the bounce, XAU has not reclaimed the upper band of the wedge, which continues to cap gains near the 4,800 region. Previous rejections from above 5,200 underline the persistent volatility within this structure. The breakdown risks discussed in Gold (XAU/USD) Falls Sharply Toward Key Support Levels remain relevant, particularly if the current rebound loses momentum before reaching upper resistance.
⬤ Gold tends to stay directionally inconclusive while trading inside wedge formations, requiring a decisive break at either boundary to trigger momentum. That pattern is examined in Gold Faces Pressure as Bearish Patterns Emerge, which outlines how holding or losing wedge support determines whether consolidation extends or a deeper move develops.
⬤ XAU currently sits at a critical technical crossroads. Maintaining position above the lower boundary keeps the wedge intact and preserves bullish potential, but failure to push through the upper band near 4,800 limits any meaningful rally. The interaction between these two levels is set to define the next directional phase as the wedge approaches its apex.
Sergey Diakov
