Eseandre Mordi
Oracle (ORCL) stock has reached a critical juncture after experiencing a sharp two-month selloff. Despite recently crossing the trillion-dollar valuation threshold, the market has shown little mercy, with ORCL shedding nearly a third of its value. The stock is now approaching a key technical support level that has historically acted as a launchpad for recoveries, making this moment particularly important for traders and investors alike.
Technical Picture at a Critical Moment
The chart reveals ORCL trading just above a long-term ascending support line that has provided a solid foundation during previous corrections. This turquoise trendline has been respected multiple times since late 2024, and the stock is now testing it once again. A cluster of short-term moving averages sits above the current price, signaling ongoing bearish pressure, while the downward trendline captures the intensity of the recent decline.
Heavy selling volume during October and early November has accelerated the move lower. If buyers emerge at this level, the stock could stabilize and begin working its way back. If support fails to hold, however, the next leg down could materialize quickly.
What's Driving the Weakness
The pullback reflects broader challenges facing large-cap software names. Concerns include:
- slowing corporate cloud spending, uncertainty around Oracle's AI strategy, increased competition from major hyperscalers, and a shift in investor appetite toward faster-growing platforms
Despite the recent weakness, Oracle's longer-term uptrend remains structurally intact. The 200-day moving average sits well below the current price, suggesting that the macro trend hasn't broken down yet—assuming this support zone holds.
What Comes Next
ORCL's correction serves as a reminder that even trillion-dollar companies aren't immune to repricing. The next phase depends entirely on whether the stock can defend this critical support level. A successful hold could set the stage for a rebound. A breakdown would likely trigger another wave of selling. For now, the focus is squarely on whether Oracle can stabilize before sentiment shifts further.
Eseandre Mordi
