Usman Salis
⬤ Mass layoff warnings across the US saw a dramatic spike in October, with 39,006 Americans receiving Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification notices. This marks the second-highest monthly total since the pandemic-era surge in 2020, signaling growing concerns about job security as companies brace for tougher economic conditions ahead.
⬤ The October figure represents a massive 162 percent jump from August, when just 14,900 workers received advance layoff notices. Looking back through nearly two decades of data, only the Great Recession period of 2008-2009, the 2020 pandemic spike, and May 2025 have seen higher numbers. The WARN Act requires employers to give workers at least 60 days' notice before major layoffs or plant closures, making these figures an early warning sign of labor market stress.
⬤ The 12-month rolling average for WARN notices now sits at 26,927, matching levels last seen during the 2008 downturn. This sustained elevation suggests the October spike wasn't just a one-off event but part of a broader trend of companies preparing for workforce reductions. The data points to mounting caution among employers as economic uncertainty continues to build.
⬤ The surge in advance layoff warnings raises fresh questions about labor market strength as companies recalibrate their hiring strategies and cost structures. With both monthly figures and long-term averages climbing sharply, the uptick in early warning signals could shift expectations around employment conditions in the months ahead.
Usman Salis
