Usman Salis
⬤ Real-time inflation tracking shows US price pressures continuing to ease. Truflation's US CPI Inflation Index now reads 1.87% year-over-year, while PCE inflation sits at 2.04%. These figures come from continuously updated point-of-sale data and suggest inflation has hovered around or below the 2% mark since late December.
⬤ Truflation's system aggregates over 35 million data points from more than 70 data providers and merchants—a completely different approach from traditional survey-based measurements. The data captures transaction-level pricing in near real time. Charts show a clear downward trend over the past month: CPI readings dropped from above 2.6% in mid-December to a low near 1.73% before settling at the current 1.87%.
⬤ The PCE reading of 2.04% sits just above CPI but remains close to the Federal Reserve's 2% target. There's a significant gap between Truflation's 1.87% estimate and the Bureau of Labor Statistics' most recent official reading of 2.70%. The difference comes down to methodology—Truflation uses continuous transaction data while BLS relies on approximately 60,000 to 80,000 data points collected through household surveys.
⬤ The timing matters. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its official December 2025 CPI data tomorrow. With real-time indicators showing inflation well below official levels, markets are watching to see if the BLS numbers confirm this cooling trend and what it means for the broader US economy.
Usman Salis
