Peter Smith
⬤ Oracle ($ORCL) has been in freefall mode since late October, when it started showing clear signs of weakness and had an open gap sitting below. That gap has now been completely filled, with ORCL trading around $230—down about 4.5% on the day. The stock has tumbled from the mid-$280s in late October to current levels, dropping below its 50-day moving average and heading toward the 200-day line near $223–$224.
⬤ The weakness picked up steam after Oracle issued what some called overly optimistic revenue projections with razor-thin margins. The chart tells the story: steady selling pressure, negative MACD momentum, and a clear downtrend that's got traders on edge. The technical picture isn't pretty, and the fundamentals aren't helping either.
⬤ Adding to the uncertainty are broader discussions around potential tax changes that could hit large software and cloud companies hard. Higher taxes would squeeze margins even more—especially risky for companies already running thin. That kind of environment could mean less hiring, weaker competitiveness, and more vulnerability if revenue growth slows or costs keep climbing.
⬤ For investors, Oracle's slide reflects growing caution around the stock and the software sector in general. With the price now approaching the 200-day support level, everyone's watching to see if it holds or breaks. Between the filled gap, margin concerns, and policy risks hanging overhead, expect more volatility in the near term.
Peter Smith
