Saad Ullah
Something unexpected is happening in the markets. Gold miners, long overshadowed by flashy tech plays, are suddenly the stars of 2025. The Bloomberg chart tracking MSCI indexes since 2004 tells the story. Semiconductors dominated most years, especially during the 2020–2023 tech boom. Gold had brief moments in 2006, 2009, and 2016, but nothing like this. The 2025 bar shows a breakout nearly hitting +100 percentage points—a level never seen before in the data.
What's Behind the Rally?
According to The Kobeissi Letter, global gold equities have outpaced semiconductor stocks by a staggering 94 percentage points year-to-date. It's a historic shift—only the second time in seven years that gold has beaten chips, and this time it's not even close.
Safe-haven demand, inflation fears, central bank buying, and a broader commodity cycle shift:
Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty are sending investors scrambling for safety, and gold remains the go-to asset. Persistent inflation is reminding everyone why gold has been a store of value for thousands of years. Central banks around the world are stacking gold at record levels, creating steady structural demand. Meanwhile, the broader mining sector is catching a tailwind as commodity cycles turn and energy transitions reshape resource investing.
Semiconductors, by comparison, are still up roughly 40% this year—solid, but nothing compared to gold's 134% surge. Chip stocks are facing a cooldown after their AI-driven tear through 2023 and early 2024. Export restrictions and tech trade tensions are adding friction, and sky-high valuations from years of outperformance are looking more vulnerable.
Can Gold Keep It Up?
Whether this continues depends on what happens next with inflation, central bank policy, and global risk appetite. If banks keep buying and inflation stays sticky, gold could hold its lead. But if AI infrastructure spending ramps back up and semiconductor demand rebounds, chips could close the gap before year-end.
Saad Ullah
