Usman Salis
U.S. jobless claims are ticking up again, hitting just over 240,000 in April 2025. But before anyone hits the panic button, there's a pattern worth noting that traders are talking about on social media.
Jobless Claims Show Familiar Seasonal Pattern
Trader @SethCL recently shared some interesting analysis on X, pointing out that we're seeing the same thing happen year after year. His chart shows similar spikes in 2022, 2023, and 2024—all happening right around the end of the school year. It's like clockwork.
The four-week moving average has also climbed above 230,000, which definitely adds some weight to the increase. But here's the thing: Seth Golden notes that this End-of-School-Year (EOSY) bump seems to be more about timing than actual economic trouble. His take? We might be overthinking what's basically a routine seasonal thing and mistaking it for recession signals every single year.
Should We Actually Be Worried?
Look, unemployment claims have been slowly creeping up since mid-2024—that's true. But the bigger picture tells a different story. These numbers have been bouncing between roughly 190,000 and 250,000 over the past couple of years, and those peaks keep lining up with end-of-school periods.
The labor market is still holding up pretty well compared to historical standards. We're nowhere near pandemic-level chaos, and unless we start seeing other economic indicators go south, this latest bump might just be another calendar-related blip rather than something to lose sleep over.
Usman Salis
