Usman Salis
⬤ The Truflation US Inflation Index currently shows 2.52% year-over-year based on daily real-time tracking. Recent charts indicate inflation climbing from mid-year lows toward the upper end of the yearly range—even though the official BLS rate remains at 3.00%. This update arrives on day 41 of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, during which most federal statistical reporting has gone dark.
⬤ The shutdown's impact goes well beyond delayed numbers. Federal agencies, including the Fed, are now flying blind. Chair Powell described the situation as "driving in the fog"—a reflection of how impossible it's become to assess the economy without timely labor, inflation, and trade data. Over 900,000 federal workers remain furloughed, millions more are working without pay, and critical reports simply aren't coming out.
⬤ The list of missing data keeps growing: weekly jobless claims, the September jobs report, international trade figures, PPI, retail sales, business inventories, GDP estimates, personal income, PCE data, and the latest JOLTS report—plus countless weekly updates that never saw the light of day. Even the CPI came out 10 days late, highlighting just how serious the disruption has become.
⬤ The Senate has moved forward with a framework to reopen the government, but nothing's finalized yet. That leaves policymakers, markets, and businesses trying to make sense of the economy with huge gaps in the picture. While official data remains frozen, Truflation's inflation index continues operating normally, delivering daily real-time readings during a period when federal visibility has essentially vanished.
Usman Salis
