Saad Ullah
EUR/USD is hovering around 1.1750 after recent volatility, with market participants focusing on an Imbalance Fair Value Gap (IFVG) that could shape the pair's next significant move. The current consolidation follows sharp swings, and many traders are taking a wait-and-see approach given the broader uncertainty surrounding dollar-denominated pairs.
IFVG Levels in Focus
IB-forex trader analysis points to the current IFVG zone as a pivotal element for EUR/USD's near-term trajectory. These imbalance areas typically draw price action before the market commits to a clearer trend. Right now, the pair is attempting to regain upward momentum after pulling back from higher levels, with the IFVG zone around 1.1780–1.1820 acting as a potential magnet for price.
The technical landscape reveals several key levels: monthly Fair Value Gap resistance sits near 1.1900–1.1920, where price faced rejection previously. There was also a liquidity run toward 1.1850 that swept stops before reversing lower. On the downside, critical support appears at 1.1645 and 1.1573, marking potential Downside Objectives (DOL) where liquidity could be targeted.
Macro Considerations
The euro's path forward remains closely linked to broader macroeconomic factors. The Federal Reserve's policy stance continues to fuel debate, with markets uncertain about how long restrictive rates will persist. Meanwhile, the ECB faces its own challenges, battling stagflation risks that limit the euro's upside potential. Global risk sentiment also plays a role, as uncertainty tends to boost demand for the dollar as a safe haven. This complex backdrop explains the cautious approach many are taking with USD pairs right now.
What's Next
EUR/USD's next major move will likely hinge on how price behaves around the 1.1780–1.1820 IFVG zone. A rejection from this area could push the pair back down toward the 1.1645–1.1573 support levels, while a clean break above 1.1820 might open the door to a test of 1.1900 or higher. For now, staying alert for false breaks and liquidity sweeps is essential before a more decisive trend takes hold.
Saad Ullah
