Saad Ullah
XRP continues to trade inside a clearly defined bearish channel, and recent price action suggests the structure is not weakening. As TradingShot noted, the asset has been moving within this Channel Down for nine months - effectively defining its entire bear cycle. With multiple rejections at a key moving average and no breakout attempt holding, the setup points toward a continuation of the downtrend, with lower targets now coming into focus.
XRP's Nine-Month Channel Down Defines the Bear Cycle
The chart confirms a consistent sequence of lower highs and lower lows, with price respecting both the upper and lower boundaries of the channel. This type of structure is not random - it reflects a controlled trend where rallies are repeatedly capped and momentum fades quickly. XRP bearish channel threatens 40% drop from here if the pattern continues to play out as expected.
The channel itself remains the dominant technical feature on the chart, guiding price direction week after week with no meaningful deviation.
The sideways movement near resistance suggests supply is being absorbed before another move lower.
XRP Rejected at MA50 Three Weeks Running
A critical detail from the chart is XRP's repeated failure to break above the 1D MA50. For the past three weeks, price has attempted to reclaim this level but has been turned away each time. Rather than signaling strength, this price behavior reflects seller accumulation within a bearish pattern - short-term recoveries that lack conviction and are being sold into consistently.
The inability to push above MA50 reinforces the idea that bulls are not in control here. Each failed attempt at that level adds another data point to the case for continuation lower. For context, XRP bearish structure signals drop to $0.87-$1.09 - a range that aligns closely with the current technical picture.
Repeated rejections at the MA50 confirm that short-term recoveries lack real buying conviction.
XRP's $0.85 Target Tied to 1M MA100 Support
With price holding near the lower half of the channel, focus shifts to the next major support level: the 1M MA100. This level previously marked the cycle bottom during the prior bear phase, making it a critical long-term reference point. The projected move toward approximately $0.85 aligns with that zone and reflects a continuation of the existing structure rather than any sudden breakdown.
Similar setups observed across recent XRP analysis continue to point toward downside continuation within channel structures, with step-by-step declines often unfolding toward deeper support zones. XRP still bearish, downside targets in play - and the broader pattern supports that view as long as price stays below key moving averages.
The 1M MA100 previously marked the bottom of the prior bear cycle - and that is exactly where this move is pointing.
Structure Still Favors Sellers With No Breakout Confirmed
There is no confirmed breakout, no shift in trend, and no reclaim of key moving averages. As long as XRP remains below the MA50 and inside the descending channel, the broader pattern stays intact. What appears as consolidation is still part of a bearish sequence - price compressing before potentially expanding lower.
Until the structure changes, the path of least resistance continues to point down.
Saad Ullah
