Alex Dudov
XRP is in a tricky spot right now. The token has slipped below its Realized Price, which is essentially the average cost basis across all circulating supply. In simple terms: most XRP holders are currently underwater.
The Alpharactal "XRP: Realized Price" chart shows the white price line sitting clearly beneath the smoother blue Realized Price curve. It's a clean visual of what the on-chain data is saying.
What the Realized Price Tells Us About XRP's Structure
The Realized Price is one of the more reliable on-chain health indicators for any asset. When price trades above it, the majority of supply is in profit, which tends to support confidence and buying pressure. Below it, the dynamic flips. Holders are sitting on unrealized losses, and that psychological weight tends to limit upside momentum.
Looking at previous XRP cycles, the token did trade below this metric during weaker phases before eventually reclaiming it and expanding. The current structure echoes those setups, and as covered in XRP Faces Crucial Technical Test Amid Market Pullback, structural weakness near key thresholds has been a recurring theme in recent months.
Reclaim or Rejection: What Happens Next
The path forward comes down to one question: can XRP reclaim the Realized Price or not? A sustained move back above it would signal that the aggregate holder base has returned to profit, historically one of the cleaner signs that an expansion phase is building. Prior analysis in XRP Price Analysis: The $2.95 Critical Level showed how reclaiming major structural zones often precedes renewed bullish momentum.
On the flip side, continued rejection keeps the contraction narrative intact. The broader picture outlined in XRP Price Prediction: Bullish Structure Holds as Analyst Sees One More Leg Up suggests the bullish case isn't off the table, but it does depend on XRP flipping this level back to support rather than resistance.
For now, XRP remains in a structurally sensitive zone. The Realized Price will stay a key metric to watch as the market decides its next move.
Alex Dudov
