Usman Salis
Toncoin just gave crypto bears a nasty surprise. After weeks of getting beaten down, TON suddenly found its footing around $2.93 and started climbing. Now it's sitting pretty at $3 with a solid 2.14% gain in just 24 hours.
This wasn't supposed to happen. Most traders were betting on more pain, expecting the selloff to drag on much longer. But TON had other plans, building a rock-solid base between $2.80 and $2.90 before making its move. The question everyone's asking now: can it actually push through to $4?
Toncoin Breaks Key Resistance But There's a Catch
Here's where things get interesting. TON just smashed through a falling trendline that's been holding it back for weeks. That's usually a pretty bullish sign - it means the selling pressure might finally be letting up.
The target? That sweet $4 level. The last time TON hit $4 was back on April 1, 2025, right after Telegram's Pavel Durov dropped some big news about TON's success and backing. Since then, it's been nothing but rejections and disappointment every time it tried to climb back up.
But this time feels different. If TON can actually hold above $3 and not get knocked down again, we might see it make a serious run at that $4 resistance.
Volume Problems and Whale Drama Could Ruin the Party
Now here's the problem - and it's a big one. While TON's price is pumping, trading volume is actually down 15.17% to just $110.85 million. That's not what you want to see during a rally. It basically means not many people are actually buying into this move.
When price goes up but volume stays low, it's usually a red flag. It suggests the rally might not have legs, and could easily reverse if sellers show up.
But wait, there's more drama. On-chain analyst Ali Martinez just dropped a bombshell: about 1.21 million wallets bought TON right around $3.24. That's a massive wall of potential sellers sitting right above current prices.
Think about it - all those people are probably underwater on their investments. If TON pushes toward $3.24, they might all rush to dump their bags just to break even. That could kill the rally before it even gets going.
Or maybe not. If these holders actually believe in TON's future, they might hold tight and let the price run. It's basically a psychological battle now - will fear or greed win out?
The next few days are going to be crucial. TON needs to prove this isn't just another fake-out rally by holding above $3 and hopefully seeing some real volume come in. If it can do that, $4 might actually be in play. If not, we could be right back where we started.
Usman Salis
