Eseandre Mordi
⬤ HyperLiquid's HYPE token is sliding after 14 months of mostly positive momentum. The project earned solid attention throughout that period thanks to strong product-market fit and heavy buyback activity. The daily chart shows a rounded top followed by steady selling—momentum's clearly shifted from buyers to sellers.
⬤ For months, HyperLiquid was buying back roughly $83 million worth of tokens every month, which helped prop up prices and kept confidence high. That support worked well early on as the ecosystem grew and visibility increased. But the chart tells a different story now—price has rolled over from its peak and dropped into the mid-to-high $20s, showing demand can't keep up with supply anymore, even with those fundamentals still intact.
⬤ The main culprit appears to be recent token unlocks. A large batch of previously locked tokens just hit circulation, and on-chain data suggests some of that supply is moving through OTC deals. This flood of new tokens landed right as the broader crypto market softened, creating a double whammy that's overwhelming the earlier buyback support.
⬤ This matters for the wider market because it shows how supply dynamics can steamroll everything else—even strong narratives and buyback programs. Buybacks help sentiment, sure, but they don't lock in price stability when unlock schedules kick in and market conditions turn. HYPE's recent drop is a reminder to watch issuance, distribution, and macro trends together, since shifts in any of those can swing volatility and valuation hard, especially after long winning streaks.
Eseandre Mordi
