Usman Salis
Ethereum (ETH) is entering a technically significant phase as its daily RSI pushes against a long-term descending trendline for what could be a pivotal breakout moment. This trendline has capped ETH's momentum since summer, and historically, breaking through this resistance has led to substantial upside moves. While ETH faces near-term pressure, the broader chart pattern suggests the current pullback might be setting up the next major rally.
Ethereum Approaches a Pivotal Momentum Signal
According to recent analysis from More Crypto Online, both momentum and market structure are aligning toward a potential inflection point. The chart shows ETH moving through what looks like a multi-month corrective formation, with price having retraced deeply into a crucial Fibonacci support zone.
This orange-highlighted area includes the 50% retracement around $2,626, the 61.8% level near $2,258, and the 78.6% retracement at approximately $1,820. This zone aligns with a possible Wave (4) correction on the macro timeframe, which typically comes before the next strong upward move.
Right now, ETH is sitting just above local support levels near $3,055–$3,380, where you can see previous trading activity and congestion on the chart. Looking up, there's a major resistance band around $4,800–$5,000 that needs to break before any real push toward the projected target near $6,400.
RSI Trendline: A Key Momentum Threshold
The daily RSI has been in a clear downtrend since early summer, defined by a descending trendline that's been respected multiple times. Each time the RSI touched this line in the past, momentum reversed sharply after breaking through, and ETH followed with a significant price jump. Ethereum is once again approaching that same RSI line, and if it breaks above with confirmation, it would signal a meaningful shift in momentum beyond just a temporary bounce.
What's Supporting This Setup
Beyond the technicals, several fundamental factors are lining up in ETH's favor. Institutional flows have strengthened following global ETH ETF approvals, Layer-2 activity is accelerating and boosting network throughput, and ETH's issuance remains deflationary during periods of high on-chain usage. Add in broader market tailwinds from improving macro liquidity expectations, and you've got conditions that historically favor stronger recoveries.
Key Levels to Watch
On the downside, important support zones sit at:
- $3,055 – immediate local support
- $2,626 – the 50% Fibonacci retracement
- $2,258 – the 61.8% retracement level
- $1,820 – the deeper 78.6% retracement
On the upside, traders should monitor the RSI descending trendline as the primary momentum trigger, along with the $3,700–$4,000 price range and the macro resistance zone near $4,800–$5,000. A clean break above both the RSI trendline and the $3,700–$4,000 area would significantly boost the probability that ETH is gearing up for its next cycle targets.
Usman Salis
