Saad Ullah
When you look at Dogecoin's long-term chart, there's a pattern that keeps showing up. Right now, with Bitcoin's next halving scheduled for April 2024, DOGE is trading at levels that look eerily similar to where it was before its massive rallies in 2017 and 2021—rallies that delivered gains of over 20,000%.
What the Chart Is Telling Us
Crypto analyst Kaleo put it simply: "$DOGE under 25 cents is free." The comment has struck a chord in the crypto community, and when you compare it to DOGE's historical price action, it's not hard to see why. Every Bitcoin halving has been followed by an explosive Dogecoin breakout, and the current setup looks like it's following the same script.
The multi-year chart shows how closely Dogecoin's price movements align with Bitcoin's four-year halving cycles. Each time, there's been a long, quiet consolidation period followed by a vertical rally that sent DOGE to new highs.
Here's what we're looking at right now: DOGE is priced at $0.1974, up about 4% recently. The upcoming Bitcoin halving in April 2024 could be the trigger, just like the July 2016 and May 2020 halvings were. After the 2020 halving, Dogecoin surged over 20,000%, moving from under a penny to $0.73. Analysts are now projecting potential gains of 2,700% to 6,700% in this cycle, which would put DOGE somewhere between $2 and $6. The chart literally marks the current position with "We are here"—sitting right at the edge of what could be another breakout phase near $0.19.
The pattern is consistent across all three cycles: DOGE consolidates in a descending triangle, flattens out near long-term support, then breaks upward shortly after the Bitcoin halving. We appear to be in that pre-breakout accumulation phase right now.
Why This Price Level Might Matter
The historical pattern across all three halving cycles is remarkably similar. After extended periods of low volatility, Dogecoin's price has historically exploded as Bitcoin's halving event reduces supply and reignites speculative interest across the crypto market. If that pattern holds, buying DOGE below $0.25 today could be comparable to buying it at $0.002 in 2020, right before it shot up to $0.70.
Technically, the chart shows a large symmetrical triangle formation, with breakout projections suggesting a potential multi-thousand-percent move. The price is currently sitting just below resistance from a long-term descending trendline at around $0.19. A confirmed breakout could initially target the $0.30 to $0.35 range before potentially climbing much higher throughout 2025.
Bitcoin halvings have historically acted as catalysts for broader crypto market rallies. When liquidity starts flowing back into the market, high-volatility assets like Dogecoin have typically outperformed. The last two halvings triggered DOGE's biggest moves, and many analysts expect a similar outcome following the 2024 halving.
Beyond the technical setup, Dogecoin's integration with X (formerly Twitter) and ongoing speculation about Elon Musk's payment features continue to fuel long-term interest. If DOGE actually becomes part of X's payment infrastructure, demand could increase significantly, cementing its position as what many call "the people's crypto."
Saad Ullah
