Peter Smith
Dogecoin has reached another critical technical point in its journey. This isn't just wishful thinking—history backs it up. Every time Dogecoin dropped under its annual moving average over the past decade, it kicked off an accumulation phase that led to a massive rally. That same setup is appearing again in 2025.
Chart Analysis: Dogecoin Cycles Aligned With the 1-Year Moving Average
A recent observation from Surf highlights a surprisingly simple strategy: "Buy DOGE below the 1-year moving average." The weekly chart tells a compelling story of recurring price behavior across three distinct cycles:
- 2016 Cycle: DOGE consolidated below the moving average before exploding into its first major bull run in 2017
- 2020 Setup: The pattern repeated, followed by the legendary surge to nearly $0.70 in 2021
- Current Structure (2025): Dogecoin is trading around $0.196, sitting just below the 1-year MA—almost identical to previous pre-rally zones
Each circled region on the chart marks these turning points where pessimism transformed into explosive growth. The pattern suggests Dogecoin may be entering another quiet accumulation phase before a potential breakout.
Technical Perspective: A Familiar Foundation for Growth
Dogecoin's chart shows early signs of a possible trend reversal. The price has been consolidating between $0.18–$0.22, building a stable base while the 1-year moving average gradually flattens. This usually indicates a bottoming process where selling pressure fades and smart money starts accumulating.
There's no major breakdown in the current structure. Instead, the moving average is stabilizing, suggesting bearish momentum may be exhausting itself. If history repeats, a decisive move back above the 1-year MA could spark renewed bullish energy, potentially mirroring the breakouts of 2017 and 2021.
Dogecoin's technical setup doesn't exist in a vacuum. Several broader factors could reinforce its bullish potential. Improved risk appetite across crypto is being driven by potential pauses in interest rate hikes and dollar weakness. Dogecoin maintains relevance through payment experiments and blockchain utility discussions, including integration plans with X's payment system. Additionally, periods of low volatility and compressed price action like this have historically preceded Dogecoin's major rallies.
The combination of favorable macro conditions and technical structure suggests DOGE could be building energy for its next upward move, even as broader markets remain cautious.
Peter Smith
