Saad Ullah
There's a fresh bullish call making the rounds for Cardano. According to Mintern, a CoinCodex forecast points to roughly 51% upside from current levels, with a projected move toward the $0.38-$0.40 range in the coming weeks. That sounds encouraging on the surface - but the chart tells a more complicated story.
The Downtrend That Still Defines ADA
ADA has been in a clear downtrend since mid-2025, sliding from near $0.90 down to the $0.25-$0.30 region. The structure hasn't been ambiguous: consistent lower highs and lower lows, with every rebound attempt failing below prior resistance. Sellers have been in control throughout.
A projected move to $0.38-$0.40 would not yet signal a trend reversal, but rather a test of a previous breakdown zone.
That framing matters. A rally to $0.40 wouldn't be a breakout - it would be a test of a zone that already broke down once. That's a very different thing psychologically and technically. As covered in ADA Price Analysis: Cardano Holds $0.25 as $10M Liquidation Risk Builds, the $0.25 area remains a sensitive level with meaningful resistance stacked above it.
Where Price Is Trying to Stabilize
Recent price action does show some signs of compression near the lows. ADA appears to be finding its footing around $0.26-$0.30, which lines up with a short-term chart target near $0.27 and a one-month projection around $0.37. The sharp decline has slowed, and the market seems to be shifting into a sideways grind.
That shift from sharp decline to sideways movement often marks the early phase of consolidation - but the structure has not yet transitioned into higher highs.
That last part is what counts. Consolidation is not the same as reversal. Until ADA starts printing higher highs, the broader trend remains bearish by definition. ADA Price Analysis: Cardano Holds Above Critical $0.24 Support Zone showed how prolonged corrections in ADA often transition into extended consolidation rather than a quick snapback.
The $0.38 Zone Is Not Just a Target
The projected $0.38-$0.40 range isn't an arbitrary number - it's a former support level that flipped into resistance when it broke down. Any rally into that zone is likely to run into selling pressure from holders who bought higher and are looking to exit closer to breakeven.
This level could act as a ceiling unless ADA can reclaim it decisively - not just touch it.
Meanwhile, larger holders don't appear to be waiting for confirmation. ADA Price Analysis: Cardano Wallets Accumulate 819M Tokens During Bear Market shows that wallet accumulation has continued even as price declined sharply - a divergence between price action and positioning that often shows up before stabilization takes hold.
Momentum Is Slowing, Not Reversing
Slowing downside momentum is a real development, and steady accumulation from larger wallets adds weight to the case for stabilization. But neither of those things changes the trend on their own. ADA still needs to break the sequence of lower highs before anything more meaningful can be claimed.
For now, the forecast toward $0.40 likely plays out as a relief rally - a bounce within a broader downtrend rather than the start of a new one. The real test comes if and when ADA attempts to reclaim that $0.38-$0.40 zone and hold it. Until then, the structure suggests patience over conviction.
Saad Ullah
