Eseandre Mordi
⬤ The XAU gold miners index keeps outpacing junior miners, with the long-term ratio holding firm in its uptrend. This ratio mirrors the broader gold and miners cycle in structure and wave pattern, but there's a crucial difference: the uptrend hasn't broken yet, suggesting the cycle's final phase might still have room to run.
⬤ The chart shows a clear rising channel stretching back decades, with XAU maintaining steady relative strength against junior miners. The ratio sits comfortably above its long-term support, meaning senior and mid-cap miners are still pulling in capital. Markets are clearly favoring quality, scale, and liquidity over the higher-risk junior names.
⬤ That said, signs point to a late-stage advance. Price action is pushing toward the upper edge of the long-term channel while momentum indicators are losing steam. The uptrend might continue short-term, but XAU's outperformance over juniors looks more like a mature phase than the start of something new.
Eseandre Mordi
