Eseandre Mordi
Gold (XAU) recent price action has traders watching closely as the metal works through a consolidation phase following months of volatility. The current market structure suggests the uptrend isn't finished yet, with a potential "sweep and reclaim" pattern forming that often precedes the next bullish leg. This technical setup fits well with the broader macro picture of slowing growth, sticky inflation, and steady central bank buying that continues to support gold's long-term appeal.
Gold Price Structure: Consolidation Before Expansion
According to technical analyst George, XAU/USD is trading within a well-defined horizontal range, currently hovering near the midpoint around $4,000.
The chart reveals three important technical zones: the range low at $3,500 acts as crucial support where institutional buyers have stepped in repeatedly, the range mean at $4,100 marks the equilibrium level that could validate a bullish move if broken, and the range high at $4,600 represents the next target if momentum picks up. The formation of a rounded bottom near the lower boundary signals weakening selling pressure and potential accumulation by smart money.
Technical Perspective: Reclaim Could Trigger Upside Continuation
The analysis suggests gold may have wrapped up its local correction. The critical question now is whether price can push back above and hold the midrange zone. If gold manages to stay above $4,100, we could see momentum build toward $4,600 as the broader uptrend resumes in typical post-consolidation fashion. On the flip side, a clean break below $3,500 would likely send prices lower to retest the $3,400–$3,300 demand zone where previous breakouts originated. Right now, the chart leans neutral-to-bullish, with buyers gradually taking back control after sweeping the range lows.
Broader Market Drivers Supporting Gold's Strength
Several macro factors continue backing gold's strength. Emerging-market central banks keep adding to their gold reserves as they diversify away from dollar holdings. Ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties are keeping investors cautious and drawn to gold as a hedge. The market is pricing in potential rate cuts for 2026, which puts pressure on bond yields and makes non-yielding assets like gold more appealing. A softer dollar environment also tends to lift gold prices. With these fundamentals in place, any technical pullbacks look more like temporary pauses than trend reversals.
Watching the $4,100 Midrange Level
The next significant move hinges on how gold handles the $4,100 level, which is the immediate decision point. A sustained break and hold above this zone could spark a strong rally toward $4,600, while losing ground at $3,500 might postpone the bullish continuation. The current setup looks constructive, suggesting this consolidation phase could become the springboard for the next leg up, supporting the view that gold hasn't topped yet.
Eseandre Mordi
