Saad Ullah
Aluminium is flashing a warning sign after a strong multi-week run. Price action on the weekly chart has stalled near the upper boundary of a rising broadening wedge, and a potential evening star candlestick pattern has appeared right at resistance. With the RSI sitting close to 71, the market looks stretched. This analysis breaks down what the setup means and where price could head next.
Evening Star at 3,340 Resistance Puts Bullish Momentum on Notice
After an extended rally, ALUMINIUM is trading near 3,340, pressing against the upper trendline of a rising broadening wedge on the weekly chart. A potential evening star pattern is forming at that resistance level, flagging the possibility that bullish momentum may be starting to stall. That said, the pattern carries limited weight for now: price has not pulled back meaningfully into the large bullish candle from two weeks prior, which keeps the signal relatively weak.
The broader trend is still intact. ALUMINIUM remains comfortably above its 21-week, 50-week, and 200-week EMAs, suggesting any weakness is more likely corrective than a trend reversal. This mirrors earlier behavior when aluminium consolidated near highs within an ascending channel rather than reversing outright.
RSI Near 71 and the 3,080-3,100 Support Zone to Watch
Momentum indicators confirm the market is extended. The RSI at approximately 71 reflects the sustained rally and raises the probability of a consolidation phase. Inside a broadening wedge structure, elevated RSI readings have historically preceded short-term pullbacks rather than immediate breakouts. The ascending support trendline, currently around the 3,080-3,100 zone, stands as the key level where price may find demand before any fresh attempt higher.
Past setups in aluminium have shown that pullbacks within structured trends tend to stay corrective while key supports hold. A revisit of that trendline support would not necessarily break the bullish case, but would reset conditions before the next directional move. Traders watching this setup should monitor whether price confirms the evening star with a meaningful close lower, or holds above near-term support and invalidates the pattern.
Saad Ullah
