Peter Smith
New research from Morgan Stanley reveals the massive economic footprint OpenAI has carved across the AI infrastructure landscape. The company's contracts account for more than $330 billion in remaining performance obligations - a staggering figure that represents roughly two-thirds of Oracle's total RPO and about 40% of CoreWeave's. When looking at the combined $880 billion in obligations across Microsoft, Oracle, and CoreWeave, OpenAI alone drives more than a third of that total.
OpenAI at the Center of AI Capital Flows
According to trader The AI Investor, Morgan Stanley's AI Ecosystem Capital Flows chart reveals just how interconnected the AI supply chain has become, with billions flowing between Microsoft, Oracle, Nvidia, AMD, CoreWeave, and OpenAI through commitments and revenue-sharing deals.
This growing web of partnerships underscores how deeply integrated the leading tech giants have become in driving the next wave of AI infrastructure and innovation.
Key insights from the data:
- Microsoft acts as the central hub, pouring investment into OpenAI while securing GPU supply from Nvidia and leasing data center capacity from CoreWeave
- Oracle shows significant exposure with roughly $100 billion tied directly to OpenAI
- CoreWeave has 40% of its RPO connected to OpenAI, indicating substantial dependency
- Nvidia dominates the hardware layer, locking in tens of billions in GPU orders across the ecosystem
- AMD is beginning to enter the picture, hinting at future competition in AI compute
Why This Matters for Investors
The numbers make it clear that OpenAI isn't simply building AI models - it's the economic engine driving infrastructure commitments throughout the industry. One company underpinning such a large chunk of Oracle's and CoreWeave's future revenue creates both opportunity and risk. If OpenAI's growth slows or contracts, the financial ripple effects could hit Oracle, CoreWeave, and even Microsoft hard. At the same time, Microsoft's dual role as both investor and infrastructure provider gives it unprecedented control over the AI supply chain.
Peter Smith
