Marina Lyubimova
⬤ Microsoft's cloud backlog just hit a massive milestone. The company's total remaining performance obligation (RPO) climbed to $625 billion — that's a 110% jump year over year. If you look at the RPO chart over the past five years, the growth trajectory has been steep, and it really accelerated into late 2026. The bottom line? Microsoft has locked in a historic amount of contracted revenue that it hasn't even recognized yet.
⬤ The numbers tell a pretty clear story. Back in 2021, Microsoft's quarterly RPO was sitting well under $200 billion. Fast forward to the latest reading, and it's blown past $600 billion. That kind of climb doesn't happen overnight — it's the result of years of stacking up long-term enterprise and cloud infrastructure deals across Microsoft's business.
⬤ Here's the thing — a huge portion of this backlog is AI-driven. About 45% of Microsoft's total commercial RPO is linked to OpenAI. That lines up perfectly with the sharp jump you see in the most recent data. Long-duration AI workloads and cloud commitments tied to those partnerships are clearly doing the heavy lifting when it comes to growing Microsoft's contracted obligations.
⬤ A $625 billion backlog is a big deal for the broader market. It shows just how much weight long-term cloud and AI contracts now carry in shaping revenue visibility for major tech companies. And with OpenAI-linked obligations front and center, it's becoming clear that AI partnerships are no longer a side story — they're baked into the cloud business model.
Marina Lyubimova
