Usman Salis
⬤ Duolingo ($DUOL) keeps sliding after failing to break back above its 200-week weighted moving average—a line that used to mark the long-term uptrend. That rejection sent the stock tumbling harder. On the weekly chart, DUOL's trading around the mid-$160s now, way down from its mid-2025 peak above $540. That's a massive drop confirming the trend has clearly flipped bearish.
⬤ The chart tells the story: years of gains followed by a sharp selloff and then a weak bounce that couldn't even reclaim the 200-week average. That failed recovery says a lot about where buyers stand—or don't. Right now, price is sitting on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement near $164, which is technically important and has held as temporary support. But the fact that it keeps getting tested? That's usually not a good sign. It shows the floor's getting weaker, not stronger.
⬤ If DUOL loses that $164 support, the next stop could be around $115. That level lines up with the deeper 0.887 retracement and older support zones from way back in the uptrend. A drop to $115 would mean an 88% retracement from those mid-2025 highs—basically wiping out nearly all the gains. Weekly momentum indicators aren't helping either. Lower highs, failed rallies, more downside risk.
⬤ This breakdown matters beyond just one stock. Duolingo was seen as a top high-growth tech name, so its weakness reflects a broader shift in how the market's valuing growth stocks right now. Tighter financial conditions and changing macro conditions are forcing repricing across the board. Whether DUOL holds here or drops further could signal how aggressive this repricing gets—and what's next for other long-duration, premium-valued equities.
Usman Salis
