Marina Lyubimova
⬤ The S&P 500 (SPX) shot up roughly 0.8% right after the latest CPI numbers came out, showing markets liked what they saw in the inflation data. But here's the catch—the index couldn't keep those gains alive and ended up finishing below where it opened. That means this doesn't count as a proper bullish daily signal, even though the initial move looked pretty strong.
⬤ Looking at the bigger picture, SPX is still in an uptrend. It's sitting comfortably above its 100-day moving average and trading in the upper portion of its Bollinger Bands. But the fact that it couldn't close higher after CPI-driven excitement tells you something. When good macro news doesn't stick, it usually means traders aren't fully convinced yet—and that kind of hesitation can matter.
The inability to close higher after strong macro news often signals underlying market uncertainty.
⬤ What happens next really matters here. If SPX makes a lower low in the coming session, that keeps downside risk on the table and suggests this cycle hasn't bottomed out yet. On the flip side, if it avoids dropping to a new low, that would point to Wednesday as the likely 70-day cycle low. The chart shows these 70-day patterns have been playing out consistently in recent SPX price action, so this timing isn't random.
⬤ This setup is worth watching because CPI rallies that don't follow through technically can lead to choppy trading or sharper pullbacks. With SPX near its recent highs but giving off mixed signals day-to-day, the next few sessions should tell us whether this momentum is real or if we're headed for some consolidation. That clarity will shape how traders approach U.S. stocks in the short term.
Marina Lyubimova
