Peter Smith
⬤ Manufacturing in New York fell sharply in December, with the Empire State Index dropping to -3.9 from 18.7 in November. The result missed the forecast of 10 and returned the sector to contraction after multiple months of steady gains. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reports that regional factory activity stalled.
⬤ A closer look shows a mixed picture. New orders stayed nearly flat - demand did not collapse. Yet deliveries arrived faster, unfilled orders declined and supplies became easier to obtain - together those signals point to looser conditions. The year's trace is clear - steady advances through mid-2025, followed by a steep December slide.
⬤ Prices remained high even as output slowed - inflation pressure persists. Firms hired more staff and kept working hours little changed, a sign that managers prefer to wait rather than cut jobs.
⬤ The striking feature is that companies still wager on a rebound. Survey answers point to brighter months ahead - today's gloom sits beside tomorrow's hope. Whether December's dip proves brief or the start of a longer decline is still unknown.
Peter Smith
