Marina Lyubimova
⬤ The NASDAQ Composite just hit a major milestone: 168 consecutive trading days above its 100-day moving average. That's eight straight months of staying above this critical technical level, a feat that's only happened a handful of times since the late 1970s. This kind of sustained rally doesn't come around often.
⬤ Extended periods above the 100-day moving average typically show up during powerful uptrends. Sure, there are short-term dips along the way, but the overall trend usually stays strong. The data shows these prolonged runs tend to cluster around major bull markets rather than appearing as random blips. When the market manages to hold above this level for months, it's usually telling a bigger story about underlying strength.
⬤ Here's where it gets interesting: historical performance data reveals that nine months after completing an eight-month stretch above the 100-day average, the S&P 500 finished higher in 12 out of 13 cases—a 92% success rate. The average gain over those nine months was around 11.2%. Longer-term outcomes paint an even brighter picture, with one-year returns coming in positive in the vast majority of cases.
⬤ This matters because current market conditions now fit into a well-established historical pattern. Yes, sustained rallies can eventually hit speed bumps, but the data strongly suggests that maintaining position above the 100-day moving average has typically led to continued upward movement over the following months. Traders and investors are now watching to see if history repeats itself.
Marina Lyubimova
