Marina Lyubimova
● Coffee futures took another sharp turn upward this week. Barchart highlighted the December 2025 ICE contract (KCZ25) rising 2.9% to around $408.95 per 100 pounds. This pushes prices back toward the $410–$420 resistance zone that's capped rallies earlier this year.
● Weather problems in key growing regions like Brazil and Colombia have traders worried about supply. Add in currency swings and higher shipping costs, and exporters are feeling the squeeze. If this keeps up, your morning coffee could get pricier as roasters pass costs along to consumers.
● Coffee's rally reflects stress across agricultural markets generally. Tight margins for beverage companies could feed into broader inflation if prices stay elevated. Some hedge funds are piling into long positions, betting the rally continues—though others expect profit-taking once prices break $410.
● Coffee's been on a wild ride since 2024, swinging between $250 and $420 as harvest shocks and speculation have alternated. Despite temporary dips, demand for quality coffee remains strong, keeping supplies tight heading into 2026. Analysts say even small problems with Brazil's next crop could push futures to fresh highs.
Marina Lyubimova
