Saad Ullah
The inflation story just took another turn. Truflation's real-time US inflation tracker hit 2.05% on September 24th - down from recent highs and sitting well below the government's official 2.9% reading.
The Numbers That Matter
Market watchers like Max Crypto are already connecting the dots, calling it "another clear sign that more rate cuts are coming." With inflation this close to the Fed's 2% target, the conversation is shifting from fighting price spikes to preparing for policy relief.
- Truflation reading: 2.05% (down 0.04 points daily)
- Official BLS rate: 2.90% (showing the data gap)
- This year's range: 1.22% to 3.04% (volatile but trending down)
This split between real-time and government data is getting harder to ignore. It suggests inflation might be cooling faster than the official numbers show.
The September chart tells the story clearly. Inflation jumped above 2.3% early in the month, then dropped below 2.0% mid-month before settling at today's 2.05%. That's a clean downtrend that puts us right where the Fed wants to see prices long-term.
What's driving the cool-down?
Electronics and energy costs keep falling, consumers are pulling back on spending after a busy summer, and global supply chains have finally stabilized. These aren't temporary blips - they're structural shifts that could stick around.
The market implications are huge. Bond yields could drop as rate cut bets heat up. Stock valuations look better when inflation isn't eating into profits, especially for growth companies. And a softer dollar could mean good news for gold and Bitcoin as investors hunt for alternatives.
Saad Ullah
