Saad Ullah
As Elliottwave Forecast noted, the double correction is shown as completed at 0.8043, and sellers are looking for further downside below the March 31, 2026 high. Rebounds in 3, 7, or 11 swings are expected to fail below 0.8018, keeping the broader short-term structure tilted lower.
The USD/CHF Reversal That Ended the Recovery
The chart shows USD/CHF topping at 0.8043 before rolling over, with that level explicitly marked as the invalidation zone. After that peak, price turned down and broke into a fresh lower sequence - shifting the tone from recovery to renewed weakness.
The reversal is not a gradual loss of momentum - it marks the end of a completed corrective pattern, after which any upside attempts are expected to remain temporary.
What stands out is that the reversal is not drawn as a gradual loss of momentum. It is presented as the end of a completed corrective pattern, followed by a projected decline that includes only temporary rebounds before another push lower.
Why 0.8018 Now Caps Any USD/CHF Bounce
The bearish setup is built around two nearby ceilings. The first is the 0.8043 high, which marks the end of the double correction. The second is 0.8018, identified as the level below which any bounce should fail.
That creates a narrow resistance band rather than a single trigger. Upside attempts may occur - but unless USD/CHF can reclaim that zone, those moves remain corrective rather than trend-changing. The chart's annotation makes the preferred approach explicit: "We Do Not Recommend Buying."
USD/CHF Bounces Back From 5-Week Lows - Is This the Start of Something Big? captured the recovery attempt that ultimately stalled at the 0.8043 resistance - making the failure at that level more significant given the momentum that preceded it.
The USD/CHF Path on the Chart Still Points Down
The forward sketch on the right side of the chart outlines a sequence of decline, rebound, and renewed decline - with the pair expected to keep pressing lower after short-lived recoveries. The message is unambiguous: the preferred direction remains down.
That makes the current structure less about guessing a bottom and more about respecting resistance. USD/CHF Holds Ground Above 0.8320 as Swiss Franc Gains on Trade Hopes shows how much ground USD/CHF has already given up from higher levels - providing context for the structural weakness that the Elliott Wave setup is now mapping out in more detail.
Saad Ullah
