Peter Smith
The euro just can't catch a break. After getting hammered last week, EUR/USD is now stuck around 1.1530, trying to stabilize but not showing much life.
The Technical Setup
Analyst Forex Sinyal Merkezi points out that the pair is trapped in a short-term bearish structure, and unless buyers can push it above 1.1550, the euro might stay under pressure from persistent dollar strength and weak Eurozone data.
EUR/USD is trading in a tight 1.1520–1.1550 range, hugging the lower edge of a falling channel. The chart shows several warning signs:
- RSI at 42.09 – below neutral, showing weak momentum
- Parabolic SAR dots above price – confirming the downtrend is still alive
- Bollinger Bands – price is near the lower band, close to oversold but no reversal signals yet
- Volume Profile POC at 1.1633 – way above current price, highlighting bearish control
- Negative volume delta – sellers are still running the show
Key levels to watch: 1.1520 support is the floor right now. If that breaks, we could see a slide toward 1.1500 and then 1.1460. On the upside, resistance sits at 1.1549 (0.618 Fib) and 1.1570, with the 200-period SMA up at 1.1608.
What's Weighing on the Euro?
The fundamentals aren't helping. Softer Eurozone inflation and industrial data are undermining the euro, while the Fed's reluctance to cut rates aggressively keeps the dollar firm. The DXY index is holding near 99.7, and traders are more focused on upcoming U.S. employment and manufacturing data than anything coming out of Europe. Until something shifts—either in the data or from central banks—the euro's outlook stays cloudy.
If EUR/USD can't hold 1.1520, expect technical selling to accelerate toward 1.1460. A break above 1.1550 would be the first sign of relief and could open the door to 1.1600, but the broader trend stays bearish unless price reclaims 1.1630. For now, the path of least resistance is still down, and the euro needs a real catalyst to turn things around.
Peter Smith
