Usman Salis
The pair keeps getting slapped down every time it tries to push above 1.1880, and now traders are positioning for what could be a nasty drop. The technical setup is screaming bearish, and the macro backdrop isn't doing the euro any favors either.
The Chart That Says It All
The euro is getting hammered at key resistance, with Jamor.eth chart showing a classic rejection setup that could send EURUSD tumbling toward 1.1700 and potentially much lower. EURUSD just hit a brick wall, and it's not looking pretty for euro bulls.
Looking at the 4-hour timeframe, EURUSD has been playing the same game over and over - push higher, get rejected, fall back down. Right now it's sitting around 1.1790, but that feels like borrowed time. The projected move points toward 1.1650-1.1600 as the first major target, but if selling really picks up steam, we could see a much deeper dive toward 1.1400-1.1350. There's also a chance we get a dead cat bounce somewhere in the middle, but the overall direction looks pretty clear.
Why the Dollar Keeps Winning
The fundamentals are backing up what the charts are showing. The Fed is still talking tough while European data keeps disappointing - Germany's manufacturing sector is particularly ugly right now. U.S. bond yields are way higher than what Europe can offer, which keeps money flowing into dollars. It's hard to see what changes this dynamic in the near term.
Key resistance sits at 1.1850-1.1880 - this is where buyers keep getting crushed. Support starts around 1.1720-1.1700, and if that breaks, 1.1600 becomes the next big test. A push above 1.1900 would flip the script entirely, but right now that seems like wishful thinking.
Usman Salis
